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Michaelrex

15 Jun 2025 - 05:34 pm

There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
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A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.

It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

Shermanneuri

15 Jun 2025 - 05:11 pm

Trump's call for a protest crackdown has been a boon for Chinese propaganda
Analysis by CNN's James Griffiths
Protesters running amok. Innocent citizens under siege. Outside actors engaging in terrorist acts. Police struggling to maintain control and in desperate need of reinforcements.
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That was how Chinese state media portrayed anti-government protests in Hong Kong last year, dismissing calls for greater democracy and an investigation into police brutality by focusing on individual acts of violence and property damage.
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Throughout the protests, the US was consistent in its support of people’s right to take to the streets and have their voice heard. Facing widespread unrest and public anger at home in the wake of the death of George Floyd, the reaction from US President Donald Trump appeared markedly different.
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On Monday, Trump called for the military to be deployed to “dominate” protesters, and demanded states do more to stem “acts of domestic terror.”
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The irony has not been lost on Beijing, which on Thursday marks (or rather doesn’t, the date is highly censored) its own military crackdown on anti-government protesters on June 4, 1989.
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“Washington’s promise of equality and justice for all in the country has remained hollow at best,” state news agency Xinhua said in a commentary titled “The coming suffocation of the American dream.”

“Amid the ongoing anti-racism protests in the country, decision-makers in Washington, instead of trying to sooth the pain and anger of the public, have been fanning the flames, calling protesters ‘THUGS,’ and threatening them with ‘the most vicious dogs, and most ominous weapons,” the commentary said.
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China Daily, a state-backed newspaper, noted that “The US, after the killing of Floyd, seems to be on fire, and troops have been mobilized to subdue angry demonstrators.”

“This is certainly not what the world expects to see in a country that is the world’s sole superpower,” it added. “But that sadly is the reality of the US.”

This rhetoric isn’t just embarrassing for Washington, it’s also a sign of how the US may find its influence damaged by a perceived hypocrisy over human rights at home and abroad.

Earlier today, Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam pointed to the unrest in the US as evidence of Washington’s “double standards.”

“They attach great importance to the national security of their country, but look at our national security through tinted spectacles, especially the current situation in Hong Kong,” she added.

The ability of Washington to influence Beijing’s position on Hong Kong – which is in part founded on fear of outside influence in the city – was already severely limited. The Trump administration’s reaction to protests at home may have hurt its position even further.

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